The Pence vs. Trump game is where we’ll start this week, because sometimes the outcome can be misleading as to the state of affairs in politics.
Pence’s favorable rating among those who Lean Republican was just 49%. His unfavorable mark was 33%. That gives a fairly low net preference rating of +16 percentage points for Pence among what should be his base.
Trump received a 75% favorable rating and a 22% unfavorable rating, giving a net favorability rating of +53 percentage points.
DeSantis came in with a 56% favorable rating, a 14% unfavorable rating, and a hefty 30% who hadn’t heard enough to rate him. Among Republicans as a whole, DeSantis had a net favor score of +42 percentage points. Among those who could assess him, his favorable rating was higher than that of Pence or Trump.
When Trump is not included, Pence’s support jumps into double digits. Still, he’s usually 10 or more points behind DeSantis.
Simply put, a high-profile former vice president behind a governor who isn’t known to a third of the GOP electorate is a pretty weak position.
Quayle, unlike Biden and like Pence, had been on a losing ticket the last time he faced voters in the general election.
In Pence’s case, that leg may not be enough. Something will have to fundamentally change for Republican primary voters for Pence to succeed.
Primary participation tells the story of enthusiasm
The results in places like Georgia tell us a story that goes beyond just primary winner and loser. They also indicate something about enthusiasm, and right now the results confirm what the polls are telling us: Republicans are excited.
Of course, any state can be an outlier. Georgia had a very compelling Republican primary for governor, while there was no truly competitive race for governor or U.S. senator on the Democratic side.
And we’re not just talking about a small difference in turnout either. While there are slightly different ways of counting turnout (i.e. the races you use to compare over the years), Republican turnout has grown nearly 50% on average so far. . Democratic turnout is down about 5% in those same contests.
Democrats would go on to make big gains in the U.S. House that year.
This year, we obviously don’t know yet what will happen. The turnout patterns we’ve seen, however, match what the polls tell us.
Additionally, CNN/SSRS polls show that more Republicans are extremely enthusiastic about voting this year than Democrats. Again, it was the opposite four years ago at this point.
All of that is a long way of saying: The primaries so far verify what the pink poll for Republicans has been indicating for months.
For your brief encounters: Memorial Day is a sacred day for Americans
This Monday marks the unofficial start of summer, with Memorial Day observed across the country.
Memorial Day received more support as a national holiday (81%) than any other. Additionally, 75% of Americans said they plan to observe it in the coming year.
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